June 2026

Executive summary

After several months of deterioration, June brings the first tentative signs of stabilisation. The Institute for Employment Studies (IES) points to early signs that the pace of decline in jobs may be slowing, and Indeed has a similarly cautious note after months of softening. The dramatic single-month payroll fall we highlighted in our May briefing, initially reported at around 100,000 in April, has since been revised to a decline of 53,000. Single-month data is volatile, and the scale of this revision surprised analysts across the sector, albeit a welcome update in many respects.

But stabilisation is not recovery. The market has stopped deteriorating and settled at a level that is weaker, more unequal, and more insecure than a year ago. Unemployment is 4.9%, up 124,000 over the year, while vacancies have fallen to 707,000, down from 759,000 a year earlier and now at their lowest level since February to April 2021. Private sector real wages have been falling since October 2025, while public sector pay has continued to grow, a gap the Resolution Foundation describes as rarely seen outside a recession. Self-employment and zero-hours work are also rising faster than overall employment, changing the quality of what work remains.

This is our fifth monthly briefing since February. Across that period, the headline figures have moved up and down and at least one dramatic number has since been revised away. But stepping back from the monthly releases, a set of conditions has held remarkably steady: intense competition for a shrinking pool of vacancies, a market that is stuck rather than crashing, a widening divide between those inside work and those trying to get in, and young people bearing the brunt throughout. Learning and Work Institute analysis now puts that competition at 5.5 people out of work wanting a job for every vacancy, up from 4.7 a year ago. We set these durable trends out in a dedicated section in this issue because they are a more useful guide to the market than any single monthly movement.

We are responding by continuing to scale infrastructure that is relational, persistent, and adaptable. Career Allies has reached 30 organisations with over 100 enrolments and 20 certified allies, with a published competency framework available under Creative Commons for other organisations to build training against. Our investment in the Stay Nimble platform continues at pace, with rapid signs of adoption of the new tooling we have added, powered by Ask.Nim. In a market that is stuck rather than recovering, infrastructure that holds the relationship through a long, grinding period is what the data calls for.